Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea
Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading
The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.
Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.
Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.
Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.
The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero
Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?
Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.
Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.
(责任编辑:发现基金)
-
所以确定了英雄的人物形象之后,英雄技能的设计就变得非常的简单了,只需要根据这个人物的形象,设定它的基本英雄定位,然后去《英雄联盟》里面借鉴就可以了,原创技能的设计和组合,交给《英雄联盟》的团队去发...[详细]
-
10月31日海富通碳中和混合C净值增长1.43%,近3个月累计上涨24.82%
减轻用户疑虑 文案和用户场景、界面上下文有着紧密的关联。...[详细]
-
知识分子CEO纪中展认为内容创业天花板是需要被打破的,“当内容成为入口的时候,它就会有很多可能。...[详细]
-
对于百润股份的未来,专家有两种预测,一种认为预调鸡尾酒只是昙花一现,很难再起来了;另一种则认为RIO的品牌知名度很高,百润股份仍具备东山再起的资本。...[详细]
-
有一年,杨国强一个远房亲戚业绩倒数第二,仗着是亲戚,自己厚着脸皮坐第一排,杨国强也没有惯着,当场就叫人力资源把那亲戚给免了,并扣发全年的奖金。...[详细]
-
” 而Joe父亲则说:“下棋非常讲究预先规划、从容不迫和步步为营。...[详细]
-
放在从前,正经如《大秦帝国之崛起》根本不会在被90后一统天下的B站投放广告。...[详细]
-
风该往哪个方向吹? 那么现在还是进行影视投资的时机吗?从某种角度而言,2017年布局影视行业,要比在2015年末布局拥有更多优势:可选投资标的更丰富、投资溢价率更低、交易价格更趋理性、电影硬件环...[详细]
-
理清关系 相互靠近的元素会在视觉上给人以相互关联的感觉,而这种视觉的远近上的感知,通常是借助留白来呈现的。...[详细]
-
而微信指数主要是帮助大家了解基于微信本身的某个关键词的热度,比如某一个事件频繁在公众号、朋友圈中出现,过去我们只知道这个词可能要火,但没有具体的数值来把‘火’的程度表现出来。...[详细]